Friday, October 29, 2010

Constellation Program

This isn't exactly news, but I'll start off this new post by mentioning it anyway.  Obama cancelled it and now it is official since early this month.  I didn't know this until I googled it and came up with the link above.  This pretty much renders most of the space stuff here pretty speculative as far as I can tell.  Unless a new launch solution is found, it is not likely that the private sector will do it.  Go to the moon, that is.  I will segue into that discussion below.

What I am getting from reading the Wikipedia article on it is that the government is betting that a better launch platform will be developed.  Perhaps that is the case, but in the meantime, there is no launch platform.  In the event that no significant improvement to the launch problem can be found, we could be left with no manned launch capability for quite some time.  There would still be unmanned capability with the current technology.

It is a bit ironic that Obama cancelled the program because of budget concerns.  This coming from an administration that passed the huge boondoggle which was called a stimulus.  If you consider the Constellation  Program as a boondoggle, then perhaps it was just one boondoggle for another.  As I have attempted to draw attention to however, the potential in space is far more than just raking leaves.  Obama may be right in betting on a better launch platform, but if he is wrong, this is a bad bet.  That is, we will lose out on the benefits of manned space exploration, as well as having to reinvent the wheel in case, for some reason, it becomes necessary to restart a manned space program.  In that scenario, the decision to cut the program in order to save money will turn out to be a failure.  It will cost more.

Wouldn't it have been better to just go to the Moon again and set up a permanent base there?  It seems pointless just to go to Mars.  If you are on the Moon permanently, you can start to do things there, instead of doing them here.  It takes a lot more to launch from Earth than from the Moon.  A permanent base on the Moon can help with the launch problem.  It costs 10,000 dollars per kg. to put a payload into Earth orbit.  A single launch to the Moon which can be leveraged into several launches from the Moon ought to help lower these costs.   Waiting for a better launch system could take a long time.  With the technology we already have, we could be building a base on the Moon now.

Update:  I didn't read this at the time, but from what I heard of Buzz Aldrin's criticisms of  former President Bush's Vision for Space Exploration, I would have agreed with Aldrin.  But now, I think a trip to Mars may be a bridge too far.  It is much more sensible to follow Bush's original plan than to go to Mars "someday".
That someday may be never.

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