The last on the Augustine Commission

This is in reference to the Constellation mission, which the Augustine Commission was reviewing.  I began with a series of posts in which I used the report as a guide.  It was loosely following the guide, with a smattering of my own comments and speculations.  After finishing reading of the document, I am still of the same opinion that a trip to Mars is too ambitious for the technology involved.  However, it should be pointed out that this commission was composed of minds far more knowledgeable on this subject than my own.  Not to be too critical though, I am just not convinced of the Mars part of this proposition.

The commission did a good job, in my opinion, of putting forth the options for policy makers need in order to make the best possible choice.   They had to consider the new technologies needed and the budget constraints that would be relevant in making those choices.  Here are a couple charts which shows what the committee was reviewing.  They didn't recommend any particular one of the options, but what they did say was that Mars was not the best first option, but it was the ultimate option.

As can be seen from the charts, one of the more significant items (in my opinion) addressed was in flight refueling.

 In flight refueling would make the shuttle derived system- which is now operational with the shuttle- capable of  Mars missions.  That is actually quite impressive.

Refueling the external tank?

Titan/Delta hybrid "Heritage" Launcher can be refueled?

In summary, I would prefer a flexible path (Option 5c) with a deferred schedule to Mars.  Before going to Mars, a better launch system than these should be developed.   A two year mission is too long.  The procedure required is too complex, which invites critical errors in my opinion.  With a mission like this, there is no margin for error.  That makes the mission too vulnerable to failure, which would be too great of a risk.

Update:  I think I should add one more speculation on this proposition.  Can the SDS (shuttle derived system) be refueled?  If it could be reused again and again, that would be better than discarded it the way they do now.  That big external tank can hold a lot of stuff and could come in handy in space.