Musk's first manned missions to Mars

This post is made without the benefit of any inside knowledge about Elon Musk's plans.

In fact, it is being made without studying over his talks all that much. It is mostly speculation about his approach that isn't being talked about. Also that, it is one that some folks that haven't grasped one important point. That is this: the first settlers won't be coming back home at the earliest launch window to Earth. There is a strong possibility that they won't come back at all.

This wouldn't necessarily be a failure. It is an intention. The problem that Musk is trying to solve will be such that there cannot be a return trip, because this will impose a requirement that will complicate the process of creating a permanent presence there.

As it is being pointed out in some quarters, the need to return back will be a huge effort in itself. The removal of that as a goal will simplify their task. It will be enough for these settlers to survive for at least two launch windows on Mars. By that time, the will be so acclimated to space that the return back to Earth may be impossible physically.

For five years away from Earth will change their bodies permanently. That is, if they survive that long.

A return trip to Earth would entail a much faster ship. If it could be done with enough speed, it could be done within one launch window. This will necessitate completely different launch parameters.

So a return trip home is not going to be feasible. But a trip there in order to stay will be feasible. Or at least, more feasible.

If there's not going to be a return trip, and there will be unmanned trips, what will those first trips be like?

He will be sending his robots there to look for resources. A water source will be needed. Besides that, shelter will be needed. Living in a rocket for months at a time is enough. They need some shelter outside their spacecraft.

The first shelters may be included on the unmanned ships. The robots will set up the shelters. Those shelters will need plenty of radiation shielding.

The settlers will need to able to breathe. Some machinery will be needed to produce oxygen for breathing.

There will be a need to detoxify their immediate environment. Mars has a lot of perchlorates in its regolith. These could find their way into their living space. These will have to be removed.

Mars is very cold. There will be a need for a heat source.

The list is long. A lot of ground work will be done in this first mission. The work may not be finished before the first humans arrive. It will be a race to finish the work before the newcomers die off.

It won't be easy. In fact, it may take several attempts to get people to survive long enough to keep the enterprise going. Something to think about, eh?