Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Working with spreadsheet and doing what if scenarios

I hope this is readable. I worked on some spreadsheet comparisons in order to get some idea on what would be economical in terms of various scenarios. I started with what is commonly looked at, and then proceeded to something from my own experience as a driver. I got some pretty interesting numbers.

 I've got six scenarios.  1) today's gas prices with current comparable vehicles with some likely numbers filled in for trade in's and so forth  2)  today's gas prices, but add a fuel cell and increase the price of the vehicle accordingly, assume a 250000 life  meaning drivers who drive a lot ( like me)  3) the same scenario, but assume increasing energy prices average 50 percent over the time period  4) Now switch to a bigger vehicle and adjust gas mileage according, reset back to today's prices and assume you can add a fuel cell at the price indicated  5) same as 4, but increase fuel prices by 50 %, , and finally 6) double the fuel prices.

Conclusion:  If they can make a pickup truck that will last 250000 miles, get a decent range between fillups, and don't lose too much in fuel economy while doing it, they will have a winner.  They will have a BIG winner, if gasoline prices go up a lot, which is distinct possibility.  Car makers should concentrate on putting fuel cells on larger vehicles first.







NOTE: I regret the lack of readability. Sorry.

Update:  I reworked the spreadsheet and added a scenario.  Also, I made the fuel economy of the larger vehicle less and still got some favorable numbers.

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